http://www.zerohedge.com/article/january-investors-survey-2010-forecasts
Apparently 70% of investors they consulted expect oil to be up 0-20% this year. So everyone expects modest, "safe" appreciation with low volatility. If I was long, I would get to the exit right now. When everyone thinks something is a sure thing, it is almost always a disaster. While I am bullish crude oil long term, I expect MASSIVE volatility this year as people who expect low volatility are shaken out of their positions.
I'm shocked that we only have 1% real oil bears. I've never seen such bullish sentiment. During the whole 2003-2008 runup we always had a large contingent of mega bears (people calling for oil to fall to $20 and the like). Bearish analysts were popular and got massive airplay. Now that everyone thinks that oil is going to slowly creep up, (as do the major investment banks) we know that something else is going to happen.
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