Sunday, April 18, 2010

Covering Crude oil short in overnight session.

I recommend covering crude oil shorts in tonight's overnight session. Crude is currently down almost $1.50 overnight at around $81.80. I initially recommended going short in mid February at $79.80 so I am covering this short at a small loss (about $1.00 bbl once we adjust for gains on roll yield).

I am eating my words and covering for a loss due to extremely bullish fundamental data out of China. Recent Chinese auto sales numbers have been incredibly bullish with a Q1 average SAAR of 18M vehicles a year and an even higher annualized rate in the recently released March data. With figures like these, I expect Chinese and OPEC demand growth to accelerate and drive oil above $100 bbl in the second half of the year. With this in mind, tonight is an opportune moment to cover short positions as the current bout of fear about Goldman Sachs is likely to be shortlived.

2 comments:

  1. The stand you took here is worth a praise. Crude Oil prices rose as on speculation a report tomorrow will show crude stockpiles in the U.S, declined for a second week and as rising equity prices buoyed investor sentiment.

    Thanks!

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  2. Crude is acting very strong here. Much as I would like to buy it lower, there may not be another chance to go long this spring unless this Greece issue gets much worse.

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