We may be approaching a good entry point for a long crude oil position. Fears about Greece accelerated into the close today taking the S&P down 28 points and crude down over $2.00. While sovereign debt issues are very real and should scare the hell out of everyone, the current bout of fear may be nearing it's climax. If markets open down tomorrow it may create a great opportunity to establish a small long CL position near $80/bbl which one can then hopefully ride up to $100 by late summer.
Due to the difficulty in calling a bottom, any opportunity tomorrow will only be suitable for a SMALL position. A full blown soverign debt crisis could create a repeat of late 2008, however I do not think this will be allowed to happen as the US Fed can prevent a run on US debt by just buying all the debt as it comes due. While this will have massive inflationary (hyperinflationary?) consequences it will prevent a sovereign debt crisis from expanding to the United States. A full blown European crisis could cause quite a scare and perhaps a selloff into the 60's but will not provoke a repeat of the 2008 crash. A full blown crisis which takes crude into the 60's may create the opportunity to take LARGE positions.
Even if we will eventually suffer from a full blown European crisis, I doubt it starts this week. It is much more likely that there is another temporary solution and market rebound before a full blown crisis.
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