Sunday, August 7, 2011

Crude is looking like a good buy here

Recommend buying crude (both WTI and Brent) on today's weakness as it looks oversold.

Dec WTI and Dec 2015 Brent both look to be good buys. It also makes sense to sell front month and second month WTI puts (strike around $83) at these levels since the chance of loss is extremely low as WTI is close to $80 support and implied vol is higher than its recent averages (although still not that high on a longer term historical comparison)

Overall I recommend getting 50% long here with another 25% in notional exposure due to put sales struck at $83.

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