Time to sell some oil

The oil market remains tight but overall macro conditions look terrible with economic growth slowing all over the world (even Brazil and China), widening credit spreads and signs of extreme financial system stress in Europe. There is a serious chance of a major negative macroeconomic shock here so I recommend reducing exposure back to 25% of a full position. I would buy back any WTI puts that you sold based on my recommendation on Aug 7th when WTI fell below $83, while the options haven't expired yet you should be able to book 95-98% of the premium received or about $3 per contract as profit. Additionally I would sell the extra crude exposure I recommended at that time. WTI is up $6 per bbl and Brent is up $8 since the the open on August 8th so this is a good time to take profits on those positions ahead of what could be a very ugly fall shoulder season.

At this point, I would only own 25% of a full position in crude with that position held in middle or back of the oil curve (preferibly 2015 or later Brent contracts). While, the oil market is still tight and may tighten further if Libyan production doesn't restart shortly, the risk of a negative macro economic shock is too high to carry any more exposure than that minimal position. Ideally I would just hold a minimal position right now with all of it held in Dec 2019 Brent (which is exceptionally cheap due to the high level of backwardation in the current market)

Crude is looking like a good buy here

Recommend buying crude (both WTI and Brent) on today's weakness as it looks oversold.

Dec WTI and Dec 2015 Brent both look to be good buys. It also makes sense to sell front month and second month WTI puts (strike around $83) at these levels since the chance of loss is extremely low as WTI is close to $80 support and implied vol is higher than its recent averages (although still not that high on a longer term historical comparison)

Overall I recommend getting 50% long here with another 25% in notional exposure due to put sales struck at $83.

Buy Petrominerales at market open

Blue Horshoe likes Petrominerales. He says to buy at the open as it is a must buy below $26

Good time to buy crude again

Markets and crude are in freefall but are approaching strong support levels. This looks like a good place to buy back into crude especially long dated Brent. I would take a starter position (about 25% of total planned investment) today starting with Dec 2015 Brent. If not accustomed to Brent then one could buy Dec 15 WTI instead at around $96 per bbl.

Good place to get back into crude with at least a starter position. 2015 or even 2012 contracts will do. Brent is probably better as it is less subject to manipulation relative to WTI.

Blue Horshoe likes Petrominerales

Blue Horshoe likes Petrominerales under 30. It is a must buy below 26.

Blue Horseshoe likes COS

Blue Horseshoe likes Canadian Oil Sands (COS)

Good time to take profits on long crude positions

This is a good place to take profits on oil positions taken early this year when oil was trading below $70 per barrel. I recommend that readers exit long positions particularly long option positions where they will have benefitted from both the rise in crude prices and the rise in implied volatility.